Analysis

Analysis Introduction

Numbers of reports received.

Unfortunately there is a small minority who will misuse the Internet. The Hotline is a means whereby the majority of users can draw attention to this misuse and have something done about it.

In the period from 1st January 2007 to 31st December 2007 the Hotline processed 2,590 such reports. This is a decrease of 3.25% on the 2,677 processed in 2006.

The Hotline has now dealt with some 12,836 reports since it was established in November 1999.

The reporting rate tends to be highly variable with some months being exceptionally high while others are relatively low. To smooth this erratic data in to a more understandable form, the number of reports received per month is averaged for each quarter year. This is presented in the graph below.

Average Monthly Reporting Level by Quarter Year.

The average number of reports received per month over 2007 was 216 per month compared to 223 per month in 2006. Whilst this slight decrease is of concern and the Hotline will continue to promote greater usage, these figures do conceal the fact that a greater proportion of reports received in 2007 were determined to be of illegal content when compared with 2006. For example in the first quarter of 2006 Hotline received 819 reports of which 106, or 12.9%, were found to be illegal. In the same period for 2007, although Hotline received only 686 reports, of those 146, or 21.3% were found to be illegal. This trend continues through the whole year as the graph below demonstrates.

Total Reports and Illegal Component, Comparing 2007 To 2006.

Of the 828 reports determined to be illegal by Hotline in 2007, 718 of these were confirmed as child pornography or other illegal child content. This proportion is a massive increase on previous years as the graph below demonstrates. It is clear that in every single year since its inception Hotline.ie has received proportionately more reports of confirmed child pornography and other illegal child content.

Unique Illegal Reports Received Per Year.

Method of Reporting Used By The Public.

The Hotline is not permitted to undertake any pre-emptive searching for illegal content on the Internet. It can only assess material reported by the public. Therefore report numbers represent the reaction of the public to material they have encountered when using various Internet services or which was sent to them as e-mail.

The graph below shows how people reported to the Hotline. The Hotline prefers to receive reports through the report forms provided on the www.hotline.ie website. Due to the prompts for relevant technical details required, reports received by this method tend to be of superior quality. It also permits the Hotline Analysts to process reports more efficiently.

The graph also shows derived reports. These are reports generated by the Hotline when a source reported by a member of the public contains links to another Internet location which is assessed as also providing illegal content.

Reporting trends since establishment.

Until 2007 there had been a steady increase in the numbers of reports received by the Hotline. However, 2007 marked a change which taken in the light of Internet usage growth is of some concern. The Hotline management tries to ensure that the reporting facilities are such that members of the public encountering what they suspect may be illegal content can easily report it. This requires a combination of promoting visibility of the Hotline and keeping the reporting facility appropriate to a changing Internet environment. Below is a table showing the year on year growth in reports processed since establishment.

A comparison of ComReg’s “Quarterly Key Data Reports” of March 2007 and March 2008 shows considerable growth in Internet subscriptions rising from 1,035,800 subscribers in 2006 to 1,213,100 in 2007. While this 17% increase is very significant, it is important to note that of the total subscriptions, broadband subscriptions in particular rose greatly from 517,300 (50% of all Internet access) to 886,200 (73% of all Internet access).

It is against this backdrop that the number of reports to the Hotline must be considered. Research from many sources has shown that each broadband connection is typically used for longer periods of time and by multiple users who access far greater volumes of data than users on a dial-up connection.

It could therefore be expected that reports from the public should have grown at a related rate so it is surprising that there has actually been a 3.25% decline. Comreg data would suggest that on pure statistical grounds reporting should not have levelled off. However, as will be demonstrated in the next section of this report, the suspicions of the Internet users who are reporting are increasingly being borne out by the Hotline.

There are a variety of reasons that could explain why the overall number of reports made to Hotline.ie has declined slightly in 2007. These could include:

1. Natural statistical variation (if reporting has reached a plateau).
2. Some new Internet users may not know where to report or what to do when they encounter something they suspect to be illegal.
3. Widespread advertising of illegal material may have declined so users are not being confronted by it and so are not reporting.
4. Spam, which previously was quite often used by those advertising illegal material, is now so prevalent that users simply delete it and don’t notice references to suspicious content even if it is present.
5. There appears to be growing sophistication of Internet users of what constitutes illegal content and there are relatively fewer reports of material that is not illegal.
6. There is a possibility that illegal content has migrated to areas of the Internet such as to UseNet, IRC and P2P which are more obscure to the average user than the World Wide Web.
7. If the above is the case there is also a possibility that users of these services are more reluctant to report than is the case with web-sites or spam.

Hotline management would like to believe that the persistence of the global agencies dealing with the issue is having an impact. There is evidence from law enforcement and INHOPE members that similar trends are being noted to varying degrees in other countries.

However, even if these trends are real and not temporary anomalies, there is no room for complacency. The effort to defeat illegal content and use of the Internet must continue unabated.

© Internet Service Providers Association of Ireland Ltd. 2008